No title

IMPORTANT NOTICE:

AWIS WOOL MARKET REVIEW

Week Ending 9 November 2018 (Week 19)

The AWEX EMI finished at 1776¢, 78¢ lower (-4.2%) in Australian currency and 30¢ lower (-2.3%) in US currency at sales in Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle this week.

32,189 bales were on offer nationally, compared with 35,124 bales last sale. 20.9% of the offering was passed in.

The offering was the smallest three centre offering of the season; and10,657 less than the 42,846 bales offered in Week 19 last year (when the EMI was 1681¢) .

AWEX reports that the value of the wool sold was $48.9 million ($1,921 per bale), taking the season total to $1.212 billion ($2,343 per bale).

The New Zealand Merino Company also offered 660 bales in Melbourne on Wednesday, of which 35.8% were passed in.

Day-to-Day and Sale-to-Sale Changes in AWEX Regional Indicators (Week 19)
Centre	Last Sale		Day-to-Day Changes (Week 19)			Sale-to-Sale	Closing	Sale-to-Sale Changes
	Week	Indicator	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Change	Indicator	US ¢	Euro ¢
Eastern	18	1854	No Sale	-59	-19	-78 (-4.2%)	1776	-30	-34
Northern	18	1891	No Sale	-55	-27	-82 (-4.3%)	1809	-32	-36
Southern	18	1830	No Sale	-61	-15	-76 (-4.2%)	1754	-29	-33
Western	18	2005	No Sale	-72	-2	-74 (-3.7%)	1931	-25	-31

The market slipped again on Wednesday, before settling to some extent on Thursday. It was disappointing after the steadier performance in the previous week. All Diameters and Types were affected. Falls among the Merinos varied over the two days, but without displaying any consistent pattern. Falls among the crossbreds were also varied.

Oddments continued to come under strong pressure with the average AWEX Merino Cardings Price Guide moving down by another 62¢ (-5.7%).

The US Exchange Rate finished 1.44¢ (2.0%) higher to close at 72.74¢ on Thursday. This did not help the market in a difficult week.

Buyers for China were dominant, with support from buyers for India, India and Korea.

Looking ahead, offerings for the coming three sales are expected to range from 35,400 bales to 39,900 bales and to be 22.8% less than in the same period last year. The forecast progressive difference to Week 22 is -16.7%.

The National Wool Production Forecasting Committee will meet on Wednesday and issue their updated forecast on Friday.

Differences in AWEX MPGs	18.5 and 22.0	18.0 and 22.0	17.5 and 22.0	17.0 and 22.0	16.5 and 22.0
North	No 22.0µ MPG	No 22.0µ MPG	No 22.0µ MPG	No 22.0µ MPG	No 22.0µ MPG
South	94¢	107¢	245¢	287¢	337¢

Market Indicator	Changes From
	Four Sales Ago Week 15	Start of the Season	Week 19 Last Year	Season Average to Week 19 Last Year
Eastern Market Indicator	-247 (-12.2%)	-212 (-10.7%)	+95 (+5.7%)	+434 (+27.7%)
Western Market Indicator	-239 (-11.0%)	-211 (-9.9%)	+209 (+12.1%)	+534 (+33.1%)

Sale-to-Sale Changes in Average AWEX Merino Micron Price Guides (MPGs)
Micron	16.5	17.0	17.5	18.0	18.5	19.0	19.5	20.0	21.0	22.0	23.0	24.0
Since Last Sale
Change ¢	-113	-103	-64	-97	-84	-122	-114	-86	-76	-69	-71
Change %	-4.3%	-4.0%	-2.6%	-4.1%	-3.7%	-5.5%	-5.2%	-4.0%	-3.6%	-3.2%	-3.3%
Since Start of the Season
Change ¢	-502	-357	-224	-178	-146	-186	-199	-202	-192	-153	-173
Change %	-16.7%	-12.8%	-8.6%	-7.3%	-6.3%	-8.1%	-8.8%	-9.0%	-8.6%	-6.9%	-7.7%
Since Same Week Last Year
Change ¢	-12	-28	-29	-38	+74	+98	+170	+291	+407	+518
Change %	-0.5%	-1.1%	-1.2%	-1.7%	+3.5%	+4.9%	+9.0%	+16.5%	+24.8%	+33.2%

Sale-to-Sale Changes in Other Average AWEX Price Guides
Micron	25.0	26.0	28.0	30.0	32.0	MC^#
Since Last Sale
Change ¢			-30	-28	0	-62
Change %			-3.9%	-4.1%	0.0%	-5.7%
Since Start of the Season
Change ¢	-464	-413	-211	-24	+29	-444
Change %	-25.4%	-26.7%	-22.0%	-3.5%	+6.4%	-30.2%
Since Same Week Last Year
Change ¢	+130	+33	-74	+37	0	-323
Change %	+10.5%	+3.0%	-9.0%	+6.0%	0.0%	-23.9%
# Average Merino Cardings Price Guide

The following tables show the details of this week's sale offering; the expected offerings over the next three sales; the changes in Exchange Rates since the previous sale; and highlights from the August ABS export data.

Details of this Week’s Offering and the Comparison with the Previous Sale’s Offering							Actual and % Changes in the Progressive Offerings from Last Year
Centre	*Last Sale*	This Sale
	*Offering*	Offering	Passed-In	Withdrawn Before Sale	Re-Offered	Bales Sold
North	9,018	8,625	17.5%	3.6%	8.2%	7,116	-37,110	-17.5%
South	19,167	17,172	18.0%	9.7%	9.5%	14,086	-45,470	-12.9%
West	6,939	6,392	33.5%	10.8%	11.6%	4,253	-23,285	-18.5%
Australia	*35,124*	32,189	20.9%	8.4%	9.5%	25,455	-105,865	-15.4%

Next Sale Offerings and Year-on-Year Differences
Centre	Week 20	Week 21	Week 22	Differences
North	10,161	9,650	9,880	-26.4%
South	21,419	17,996	20,460	-21.9%
West	8,303	7,800	7,900	-20.0%
New Zealand		800
Australia	39,883	35,446	38,240	113,569
Differences	-21.3%	-25.2%	-22.1%	-22.8%

Exchange Rates	Last	Day-to-Day Changes					Sale-to-Sale	Closing	Season Min & Max
(Reserve Bank)	Sale	Fri	Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur	Change	Value	Min	Max
United States	71.30	+1.13	-0.54	+0.24	+0.51	+0.10	+1.44 (+2.0%)	72.74	70.72	74.41
Euro	62.85	+0.63	-0.34	+0.13	+0.13	+0.27	+0.82 (+1.3%)	63.67	61.17	64.08

Country	% Share of Australia’s Wool Exports by Weight of Wool Shipped			Year-on-Year % Change
	August 2018	July to August 2018/19	July to August 2017/18	July to August
	August 2018	July to August 2018/19	July to August 2017/18	By Weight	By Value
China	78.5%	75.5%	74.7%	-19.8%	+11.1%
India	5.4%	7.2%	7.2%	-21.4%	-2.5%
Italy	4.5%	6.1%	5.2%	-7.6%	+10.3%
Czech Republic	3.8%	3.9%	5.9%	-47.8%	-16.2%
Korea	2.6%	2.1%	1.4%	+17.4%	+45.4%
Malaysia	0.9%	1.1%	1.6%	-47.4%	-39.4%
Egypt	0.8%	1.0%	1.0%	-19.8%	-2.3%
Taiwan	0.6%	0.9%	0.6%	+16.7%	+97.1%
Change all Countries				-20.7%	+8.2%