IMPORTANT NOTICE:

 

 

AWIS WOOL MARKET REVIEW

Week Ending 9 August 2019 (Week 06).

The AWEX EMI finished at 1676˘, 78˘ lower (-4.4%) in Australian currency and 88˘ lower (-7.2%) in US currency at sales in Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle this week.

41,543 bales were on offer nationally, compared with 34,078 bales last sale.  28.6% of the offering was passed in, including 53.5% in Fremantle.

AWEX reports that the value of the wool sold was $51.1 million ($1,724 per bale), taking the season total to $164.9 million ($1,869 per bale).

Day-to-Day and Sale-to-Sale Changes in AWEX Regional Indicators (Week 06)

Centre

Last Sale

Day-to-Day Changes (Week 06)

Sale-to-Sale

Closing

Sale-to-Sale Changes

 

Week

Indicator

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Change

Indicator

US ˘

Euro ˘

Eastern

02

1754

No Sale

-31

-47

-78 (-4.4%)

1676

-88

-72

Northern

02

1780

No Sale

-30

-46

-76 (-4.3%)

1704

-87

-71

Southern

02

1737

No Sale

-32

-46

-78 (-4.5%)

1659

-87

-73

Western

02

1894

No Sale

-59

-75

-134 (-7.1%)

1760

-128

-109

Although the market finished on a firm note in the last sale before the Break in Sales, all that good work was overshadowed by the increasing global economic uncertainty associated with the trade and / or political disputes between the US and China (in particular) the US and India, the US and Iran; and Brexit.  Commodity prices (apart from gold) invariably come under pressure in such circumstances.

The US Exchange Rate finished 1.97˘ (-2.8%) lower to close at 67.75˘ on Thursday; after falling to 67.16˘ on Wednesday.  This was the lowest value since the middle of March in 2009, when it was 66.13˘.

The greatest impact on prices was from 18.5 microns and up among the Merinos, and at 30 and 32 microns in the Crossbreds.  Oddments went against the trend, with increases on both days, leading to a 4.1% increase in the average AWEX Merino Cardings Indicator.

Buyers for China were dominant, with support from buyers for Europe, India and Korea.

In other countries, South African sales were due to resume in week 07, but will not be attended by buyers (see AWIS Newsletter).

Looking ahead, offerings for the coming three sales are expected to range from 30,645 bales to 44,836 bales and to be 8.1% more than in the same period last year.  The forecast progressive difference to Week 9 is -8.0%.

Differences in AWEX MPGs

18.5 and 22.0

18.0 and 22.0

17.5 and 22.0

17.0 and 22.0

16.5 and 22.0

North

No 22.0µ MPG

No 22.0µ MPG

No 22.0µ MPG

No 22.0µ MPG

No 22.0µ MPG

South

80˘

136˘

142˘

166˘

207˘

 

Market Indicator

Changes From

 

Four Sales Ago
Week 51

Start of
the Season

Week 06
Last Year

Season Average to
Week 06 Last Year

Eastern Market Indicator

-90  (-5.1%)

-63  (-3.6%)

-314  (-15.8%)

-270  (-13.6%)

Western Market Indicator

No Sale

-121  (-6.4%)

-398  (-18.4%)

-307  (-14.3%)

 

Sale-to-Sale Changes in Average AWEX Merino Micron Price Guides (MPGs)

Micron

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

24.0

Since Last Sale

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Change ˘

-68

-60

-69

-72

-111

-141

-143

-143

-145

-130

 

 

Change %

-3.1%

-2.8%

-3.2%

-3.4%

-5.4%

-6.9%

-7.0%

-7.0%

-7.1%

-6.4%

 

 

Since Start of the Season

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Change ˘

-46

-50

-55

-59

-101

-135

-135

-135

-138

-130

 

 

Change %

-2.1%

-2.3%

-2.6%

-2.8%

-4.9%

-6.6%

-6.7%

-6.7%

-6.8%

-6.4%

 

 

Since Same Week Last Year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Change ˘

-945

-730

-572

-421

-435

-413

-368

-349

-335

-290

 

 

Change %

-30.9%

-25.8%

-21.6%

-17.0%

-18.2%

-17.8%

-16.3%

-15.6%

-15.1%

-13.2%

 

 

 

Sale-to-Sale Changes in Other Average AWEX Price Guides

Micron

25.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

MC#

Since Last Sale

 

 

 

 

Change ˘

 

-55

-52

-77

-52

+41

Change %

 

-4.0%

-5.0%

-8.9%

-8.8%

+4.1%

Since Start of the Season

 

 

 

 

Change ˘

 

-26

-48

-64

-53

+61

Change %

 

-1.9%

-4.6%

-7.5%

-9.0%

+6.2%

Since Same Week Last Year

 

 

 

 

Change ˘

 

-137

+118

+123

+80

-430

Change %

 

-9.4%

+13.4%

+18.6%

+17.5%

-29.1%

#    Average Merino Cardings Price Guide


 

The following tables show the details of this week's sale offering; the expected offerings over the next three sales; the changes in Exchange Rates since the previous sale; and highlights from the June ABS export data.

Details of this Week’s Offering and the Comparison with the Previous Sale’s Offering

 

Progressive Changes from Last Year

Centre

Last Sale

This Sale

 

All Bales

1st Time Bales

 

Offering

Offering

Passed-In

Withdrawn
Before Sale

Re-Offered

Bales Sold

 

Bales

%

%

North

11,890

13,059

19.7%

3.2%

4.1%

10,490

 

-10,745

-22.4%

-23.6%

South

17,066

21,125

25.6%

2.0%

5.3%

15,726

 

-15,336

-23.8%

-27.3%

West

5,122

7,359

53.5%

14.2%

14.1%

3,425

 

-1,146

-5.4%

-11.7%

Australia

34,078

41,543

28.6%

4.8%

6.5%

29,641

 

-27,227

-20.3%

-23.6%

 

Next Sale Offerings and Year-on-Year Differences

Centre

Week 07

Week 08

Week 09

Differences

North

13,984

10,460

10,025

+1.9%

South

21,231

20,185

17,356

+10.3%

West

8,388

No Sale

7,400

+6.1%

New Zealand

2,060

 

1,500

 

Australia

44,836

30,645

34,781

110,262

Differences

+23.5%

+3.2%

-3.4%

+8.1%

 

Exchange Rates

Last

Day-to-Day Changes

Sale-to-Sale

Closing

Season Min & Max

(Reserve Bank)

Sale

Fri

Mon

Tues

Wed

Thur

Change

Value

Min

Max

United States

69.72

-1.60

Public

-0.28

-0.68

+0.59

-1.97  (-2.8%)

67.75

67.75

70.36

Euro

61.86

-0.38

Holiday

-0.89

-0.66

+0.49

-1.44  (-2.3%)

60.42

60.42

62.36

 

Country

% Share of Australia’s Wool Exports by Weight of Wool Shipped

Year-on-Year % Change

 

June
2019

July to June
2018/19

July to June
2017/20

July to June

By Weight

By Value

China

81.1%

78.0%

78.4%

-15.1%

-3.0%

India

5.4%

5.8%

5.9%

-15.9%

-5.6%

Italy

1.5%

4.6%

4.0%

-1.0%

+9.6%

Czech Republic

4.0%

3.6%

5.3%

-41.3%

-33.1%

Korea

2.1%

2.4%

2.0%

+23.8%

+32.9%

Malaysia

0.9%

0.8%

1.3%

-45.9%

-36.7%

Egypt

0.8%

1.0%

1.0%

-19.8%

-2.3%

Taiwan

0.6%

0.9%

0.6%

+16.7%

+97.1%

Change all Countries

 

 

 

-20.7%

+8.2%


 

Next Three Sales

Week Number           Commencing                             Selling Centres                                Bales

07                    12 August 2019                 Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle                  43,603

                                                                New Zealand Merino Company                      2,060

08                    19 August 2019                         Sydney and Melbourne                          30,645

09                    26 August 2019                 Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle                  34,781

                                                                New Zealand Merino Company                      1,500

© AWIS 2019 (for permission to reprint, in part or whole, please contact this office)

 

 

AWIS WOOL MARKET

REVIEW ARCHIVES

(Week Ending)

9 August 2019

12 July 2019

5 July 2019

28 June 2019

21 June 2019

14 June 2019

7 June 2019

31 May 2019

24 May 2019

17 May 2019

10 May 2019

3 May 2019

19 April 2019

12 April 2019

5 April 2019

29 March 2019

22 March 2019

15 March 2019

8 March 2019

1 March 2019

22 February 2019

15 February 2019

8 February 2019

1 February 2019

25 January 2019

18 January 2019

11 January 2019

14 December 2018

7 December 2018

30 November 2018

23 November 2018

16 November 2018

9 November 2018

2 November 2018

26 October 2018

19 October 2018

12 October 2018

5 October 2018

28 September 2018

21 September 2018

14 September 2018

7 September 2018

31 August 2018

24 August 2018

17 August 2018

10 August 2018

13 July 2018

6 July 2018

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